Dear mr Brown,
- At this moment, I understand the Paris Agreement and the abstention of it by ‘you’ (all American actors involved) as follows:
A. There is a cluster of aims (future situations to realize) (much can be said about those aims, but I will leave that aside now):
(a) Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change;
(b) Increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change and foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas emissions development, in a manner that does not threaten food production;
(c) Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development.”
Countries furthermore aim to reach “global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible”. The agreement has been described as an incentive for and driver of fossil fuel divestment.
- To go back to your question, what ‘you’ (all American actors involved) will NOT do after cancelling the American cooperation with the Agreement is NOT trying to reach those aims, in short NOT divesting fossil fuel production and use and thus not helping to hold temperature increase.
- The federal government will itself not invest in transition and not decrease investment in fossile production and use. It will not regulate the energy market in a way that helps to reach the end. It will not stimulate firms to cooperate in reaching the aims. It will not stimulate citizens to cooperate in reaching the aims.
B. There are means (actions to perform): they are called
Nationally determined contributions and their limits
The contribution that each individual country should make in order to achieve the worldwide goal are determined by all countries individually and called “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs). Article 3
- Back to your question: ‘you’ will NOT any longer set and implement those contributions.
The contributions should be reported every five years and are to be registered by the UNFCCC Secretariat. Each further ambition should be more ambitious than the previous one, known as the principle of ‘progression’. Countries can cooperate and pool their nationally determined contributions. The Intended Nationally Determined Contributions pledged during the 2015 Climate Change Conference serve — unless provided otherwise — as the initial Nationally determined contribution.
- Back to your question: ‘you’ will NOT report because you will not do anything to help reaching the aims.
Wrapping it all up: the amount of investment by federal government and firms in the USA will be ZERO. Your ‘x’ is zero. Zero ambition, zero investment, zero regulation.
And yes, that will result in a catastrophe.